SpaceX's Path to $12.8 Trillion
Why the Space Economy's Future is Bigger Than You Think
What if Mars isn’t just a science project—but an actual line item on a trillion-dollar balance sheet?
A groundbreaking new valuation model from ARK Invest and Mach 33 suggests that SpaceX could become the most valuable company in history, with base-case projections reaching $2.5 trillion by 2030 and $12.8 trillion by 2040. And that’s just the middle scenario.
The model goes beyond speculative hype. Built using Monte Carlo simulations and more than 50 variables, it charts a future where Starlink generates massive global cash flows through 2035—then shifts entirely to funding Mars development. At the heart of the plan? Not astronauts. Not colonies. But a million Optimus robots working on Mars by 2040.
Starlink becomes the cash engine. Starship becomes the logistics network. Optimus becomes the labor force. And Mars becomes the next economic frontier—not through abstract sci-fi dreams, but infrastructure, book value, and scalable industrial development.
Inside this analysis:
Why Starlink’s economics are better than most investors realize
How Wright’s Law is driving down satellite costs faster than Moore’s Law
Why competition like Amazon Kuiper may never catch up
What 100+ Starship launches per year really signals
How SpaceX plans to shift from internet provider to interplanetary builder
Why the first Martians will be robots—and why that changes everything
And what the model doesn’t include that could push valuations even higher
This isn’t just about satellites or space travel. It’s the dawn of a new industrial age—off Earth.