We're Close to Disaster and Nobody Knows: Why Taiwan Chip Risk Forces Terafab

Xi Jinping, the president of China, essentially president for life at this point, has directed the PLA, which is the People's Liberation Army, China's military, to be invasion ready for Taiwan by 2027. The market is priced against somewhere around 11 to 18% chance of a China-Taiwan military clash by the end of 2027, depending on which contract one look at. In December 2025, the PLA ran these drills called Justice Mission 2025, where they simulated a full blockade of Taiwan, which is actually in some ways more concerning because a blockade doesn't trigger the same kind of international response as an invasion, but it can strangle Taiwan's economy and chip production all the same. Oil has surged above $100 a barrel as of the time of this recording, up about 40%, and Iran is threatening $200 oil. Overall, this points to specialized systems and vertically integrated players shaping what comes next far more than surface narratives suggest.

Check the video here.