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This week's signal

No. 085

Farzad: Elon Says Debt Markets Have Almost Entirely Shut Off for Companies Without Substantial Revenue Outside AI Data Centers, SpaceX Closed $40B of Debt for GPUs, and 200+ Neoclouds Face "Guppy-Level Death" + Elon on Why Starlink Must Remain Civilian

Elon said Sunday that debt markets have almost entirely shut off for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, that SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, and that 200+ neoclouds face guppy-level death and consolidation. Farzad RTd it and an Elon follow-up on callable GPU debt, and liked Elon on keeping Starlink civilian.

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084Farzad: "Cooked." on the AT&T CEO Interview About Starlink Mobile + His Personal Use Case of Agents Is "Melting My Brain" as Elon Says Agentic Demand Is Growing Faster Than Anything He Has Seen GrowSawyerMerritt posted lines from a new AT&T CEO interview about Starlink Mobile Saturday morning CT, and Farzad quoted it with one word: Cooked. That evening Farzad said his personal use case of agents is melting his…AI & Automation083Farzad: SawyerMerritt Says AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile Are Jointly Lobbying the FCC as SpaceX Nears Its Own Cellular Network + His Call That Self-Driving and Humanoids Face "the Same Anti-Competitive Effort"Late Friday morning CT, SawyerMerritt posted that AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are jointly lobbying the FCC as SpaceX moves closer to its own cellular network. Farzad called it just the beginning and projected that…AI & Automation082Farzad: SpaceX Says Its Board Formed a Committee to Evaluate a Tesla Combination + His Bet on a Merger Before July 2027 + "By 2028 SpaceX Will Be Ahead of Everyone Forever"Thursday afternoon CT, SawyerMerritt posted that SpaceX confirmed a board committee to evaluate a combination with Tesla, and Farzad said SpaceX "can name its price" by Q4 2026 earnings. Late that evening he offered bet…AI & Automation
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498Why SpaceX Is Learning How Metal FreezesElon says turbine suppliers tell SpaceX the blades and vanes trail the rest of the machine by 12 to 18 months. Inside the hottest part of an AI power plant: creep, single crystals, ceramic cores, and the proof SpaceX…SpaceXEnergy
497Google Built the Chip. SpaceX Built the Railroad.A Google AI experiment reached orbit on a shared SpaceX ride, aboard a satellite Planet built with Google. Farzad argues the ride matters as much as the chip, because cheaper launch changes what engineers can afford to…SpaceXAI & Automation
496SpaceX Lives Or Dies By The Run RateElon floated $500 billion to $1 trillion in annual recurring revenue and joked it could give his CFO a heart attack. On reported numbers SpaceX looks expensive at about $2 trillion. Whether it is actually undervalued…SpaceXAI & Automation
495Elon Musk Makes Shocking PredictionsOn the SpaceX Q3 call, Elon Musk said annual recurring revenue could hit $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. The quarter just closed at $14.6 billion. Here is the math behind the claim, the compute plan…Musk & Strategy
494Elon Musk Just Shocked The WorldElon Musk pledged one SpaceX share to every kid in America. For him it is a small gift. The reason is the story: AI will enrich whoever owns it, and the bottom half of America owns less than 1% of the stock.AI & Automation
493The Yikes Heard Around The WorldElon Musk answered a CoreWeave bond yield touching 15% with one word: "Yikes." CoreWeave still pays its locked-in 9.625%. Here is how its borrowing boxes work, what the default insurance priced in, and the four things I…Tech Investing
492The Most Insane Partnership In HistoryEvery big AI company is hitting the same wall: the wires coming into the building. SpaceX and Nvidia are looking to orbit instead, where panels collect about five times the energy, heat has to glow away, and the price…Musk & Strategy
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Abundance or Collapse — book cover

Abundance or Collapse

The fork in the road for AI, robotics, and civilization

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Master Plan — book cover

Master Plan

What Elon Musk is really building

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