Preseason · August 25, 2026
Title · Jan 25, 2027
Three models. One pick. Still not a lock.
Week 0 has not been played. The first Saturday is August 29. Three forecasts, written August 25, all pick Ohio State to win on January 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Codex has the Buckeyes at 16.7 percent. Fable has them at 21 after shrinking toward the market.
GrokFirst-Principles ReportOne scenario. Ohio State over Oregon, 28-21. No title percent.
CodexRoad to Allegiant50,000 seasons plus one signed ticket. Ohio State over Notre Dame, 31-27. Title share: 16.7 percent.
FablePlayoff Deep Dive50,000 seasons, then pulled toward the market. Ohio State over Notre Dame. Calibrated title share: 21 percent.
Two models print odds. One prints a pick.
Codex and Fable ran 50,000 seasons each. Grok wrote one board. I will not invent a Grok percent.
Title odds · Codex vs Fable
Shared teams only. Grok did not print a title percent, so Ohio State gets a pick mark, not a fake number. Fable puts the rest of the field at 8.5 percent calibrated.
CodexFable calibratedGrok · the pick
The 12
1 through 3 are the same. The fight starts at 4. Vermilion marks a seed the three did not share. Fable did not print records.
| Seed | Grok | Codex | Fable | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State12-1 | Ohio State12-1 | Ohio State | |
| 2 | Georgia12-1 | Georgia12-1 | Georgia | |
| 3 | Notre Dame11-1 | Notre Dame11-1 | Notre Dame | |
| 4 | Miami12-1 | Miami12-1 | Texas Tech | Miami vs Texas Tech |
| 5 | Texas10-3 | Texas11-2 | Oregon | split |
| 6 | Oregon11-2 | Oregon11-2 | Miami | split |
| 7 | Indiana10-2 | Texas Tech12-1 | Indiana | split |
| 8 | Texas Tech11-1 | Indiana10-2 | Texas | split |
| 9 | LSU9-3 | LSU10-2 | Penn State | split |
| 10 | BYU10-2 | Alabama10-2 | Alabama | split |
| 11 | Ole Miss9-3 | Texas A&M10-2 | Texas A&M | split |
| 12 | Boise State10-2 | Boise State11-1 | UNLV | Boise vs UNLV |
Penn State is the other split that does not show as a seed fight. Fable puts the Nittany Lions in at 9. Grok has them first four out, with Alabama, SMU, and USC.
Fable · strength vs expected wins
Right is a better team on a neutral field. Up is more regular-season wins. Ohio State sits farthest right. Notre Dame sits highest. Texas has the talent and a hard slate. Texas Tech wins a lot on a soft slate.
Codex · model vs market
Title percent minus the de-vigged books. Ohio State is plus 6.0. Oregon is plus 3.9. Texas is minus 1.0. Plus means Codex is higher than the market.
They lock the top. They fight from 4 on down.
All three pick Ohio State as champion. All three give Ohio State and Georgia a bye as 1 and 2. All three put Notre Dame on a bye. Week 2, Ohio State at Texas, is the first real update. Indiana is still real after Mendoza. Not a repeat lock.
Grok's title game is Ohio State over Oregon, 28-21. Codex and Fable play Ohio State over Notre Dame. Grok and Codex put Miami at 4. Fable puts Texas Tech there as the Big 12 champ. Grok and Codex give the last bid to Boise State. Fable gives it to UNLV.
Grok's Texas is 10-3 as the 5-seed. Codex signs Texas at 11-2 as the 5. Fable puts Penn State in the field at 9. Grok has Penn State first four out.
Codex still has bye teams winning 72 percent of titles. The most common Codex final is Notre Dame vs Ohio State, and even that pairing is only 4.5 percent. Expected bids: Big Ten 3.5, SEC 3.6.
Three tickets. Same champion. Two different finals.
Grok leaves Oregon in the final. Codex and Fable leave Notre Dame. Path is a football variable.
Grok
First-Principles Report
Ohio State over Oregon 28-21
First round
- Texas over Boise State · Austin
- Oregon over Ole Miss · Autzen
- Indiana over BYU · Bloomington
- Texas Tech over LSU · Lubbock
Quarterfinals
- Ohio State over Texas Tech
- Georgia over Indiana
- Oregon over Notre Dame
- Texas over Miami
Semifinals
- Ohio State over Texas 31-24
- Oregon over Georgia 38-27
Championship
- Ohio State over Oregon 28-21
Codex
Road to Allegiant
Ohio State over Notre Dame 31-27
First round
- Texas over Boise State · Austin
- Oregon over Texas A&M · Eugene
- Texas Tech over Alabama · Lubbock
- Indiana over LSU · Bloomington
Quarterfinals
- Ohio State over Indiana · Rose
- Texas over Miami · Cotton
- Georgia over Texas Tech · Peach
- Notre Dame over Oregon · Fiesta
Semifinals
- Ohio State over Texas · Orange
- Notre Dame over Georgia · Sugar
Championship
- Ohio State over Notre Dame 31-27
Fable
Playoff Deep Dive
Ohio State over Notre Dame
First round
- Oregon over UNLV
- Texas over Penn State
- Miami over Texas A&M
- Indiana over Alabama
Quarterfinals
- Ohio State over Texas
- Oregon over Texas Tech
- Georgia over Indiana
- Notre Dame over Miami
Semifinals
- Ohio State over Oregon
- Notre Dame over Georgia
Championship
- Ohio State over Notre Dame
Why Ohio State, and how this is wrong.
Sayin is the plus quarterback. Jeremiah Smith is the best player. The line holds in January. Ryan Day already won a CFP title. Grok says the defense will be worse than 2025 and still top-five if Patricia rebuilds again.
Codex calls it the best roster on a hard road. The model still leads at 16.7 percent after paying for at Texas, at Indiana, at USC, Oregon, Michigan. Favorite, not a lock. 25 percent of those seasons finish with 8 or fewer regular-season wins.
Fable's case is more ways to beat another elite team when the first plan fails. Smith, Sayin, Bo Jackson. Defense is the hole, already priced into 21 percent. Fable also says Oregon, Notre Dame, Georgia, Texas, and Indiana together are more likely to win than Ohio State.
Grok named the failure modes. If Ohio State's defense is actually average, they lose at Indiana too, they are a 5-seed, and they have to win four games. The champion in that world is Oregon or Georgia. If Manning is the guy, Texas is the champion. Week 2 is the tell. If Carr goes 12-0, Notre Dame gets the 1-seed. The BYU game is the tell. If Kiffin's LSU is 2025 Indiana, LSU is a 4-seed, not a 9. And if a starting quarterback gets hurt, the board reshuffles in a week.
First four out, and the one Fable lets in.
Grok's first four out: Alabama, SMU, USC, Penn State. Fable puts Penn State in at 9 and sends them to Texas in the first round. Codex's signed field has Alabama at 10 and Texas A&M at 11, and leaves Penn State out.
That Penn State gap is the cleanest picture of how these boards disagree. Same August 25 freeze. Same public data. Three different ideas of who is actually in.