Important Warning: Why Unsupervised FSD Could Collapse the Car Market

With average new U.S. cars near $48,000—and even a rounded $40,000 example losing roughly 60% to about $16,000 in four years under a normal curve—the sharper risk is unsupervised full self-driving arriving in major markets on a roughly 12–18 month horizon, collapsing residual values faster than classic depreciation. Version 14 FSD progress and Musk’s comfort with unsupervised operation frame a world where city riders summon robotaxis near $1 per mile instead of financing $30,000–$50,000 personal cars, so why buy the depreciating asset at all? Even a slower path to 2030 still burns ~$24,000 on ordinary wear-down, while opportunity cost arguments contrast that cash parked in autonomy and AI infrastructure names. Overall, this points to a used- and new-car market repricing around transportation-as-a-service once unsupervised autonomy is no longer a forever-promise but a near-term regulatory and product reality.

Check the video here.