The Car Market Collapse: Why Buying Now Could Cost You $72,000

Brace for the Autonomy Shockwave That's About to Crush Vehicle Values

The rapid rollout of unsupervised full self-driving technology stands poised to slash transportation costs by up to two-thirds, making personal car ownership obsolete in many areas and triggering a massive drop in used car prices. For anyone eyeing a new vehicle, the math points to staggering opportunity costs—potentially turning a $40,000 purchase into an $8,000 asset in just four years while missing out on investments that could double that money.

Key Takeaways

• Unsupervised autonomous driving approval could arrive in major U.S. markets within 12-18 months, fundamentally shifting car ownership from essential to optional.

• Current average new car costs around $48,000, with typical depreciation hitting 60% in four years—but autonomy could double that loss to 80% or more in disrupted markets.

• Robotaxis aim for 25-30 cents per mile operating costs, undercutting personal vehicle ownership's 70-80 cents per mile and saving users $10,000 annually.

• Leasing transfers depreciation risk to lenders, making it a smarter short-term play than buying outright amid uncertainty.

• Rural or specialized needs (like work trucks or large families) justify purchases, but urban commuters face the biggest risks.

• Investing saved funds in AI and autonomy-related stocks could yield 15% annual growth, turning $40,000 into $80,000 over four years—a $72,000 swing versus car depreciation.

• Watch Austin's used car market post-Texas FSD approval as an early indicator of nationwide impacts.